Son Of A Handy Guide to the Future

5/1/2019

Son Of A Handy Guide to the Future

That was certainly one Handy Guide, wasn’t it? This one is even handier, at least for those who like more details.

Thanks to the late Larry Zuckerman’s meticulously-researched book, Ballparks of the Pacific Coast League, we have loads of PCL park data from the ’30’s/’40’s/’50’s. We don’t quite have complete data, but we have a lot, and we will use whatever statistics are available to us to attempt to re-create these ballparks and their effects in OOTP.

In the first chart below I have taken the actual league totals for the PCL for the years 1938-1957 and adjusted it to approximately 154 games per year. “Approximately” because teams didn’t all play the same number of games every year (rain outs were often not made up) and “154 games” because that’s what we play in the Redux (the real PCL wasn’t consistent in the amount of games they scheduled, and sometimes teams played over 200 in a season). This chart will give you an idea of what to expect in upcoming seasons with regards to whether it was a big hitters’ year, or a big year for home runs, etc. A quick scan of the chart will reveal that home runs rose and dropped dramatically throughout these years. The totals are what I will set the LTMs (League Totals Modifiers) in OOTP to achieve each season.

The other chart shows adjusted park factors for the years 1935-1953. These are the factors I will input into OOTP. They are not the actual historical park factors for each individual year; they are based on averages over a longer period. Each time a team moved or the dimensions of one or more parks changed, all the league’s park factors change (since a park’s factors, by definition, are a comparison to the other parks in a league). If nothing changed in any of the parks from one year to the next, the factors stay the same until there was a change in one of the parks. I believe that using averages from several seasons, rather than implicitly trusting that a park’s actual effects on statistics really changes radically from year to year, makes park factors more accurate in cases when the parks have not been altered.

Actual PCL season totals, adjusted to actual MLB season (approx. 154 games/team)

Yr AB H 2B 3B HR SB AVG. OBP SLG OPS
1938 40569 11063 1918 380 498 460 .273 .333 .376 .708
1939 41152 11589 2006 442 500 520 .282 .339 .388 .728
1940 40881 11090 1775 349 426 535 .271 .335 .363 .698
1941 41241 11233 1946 425 420 692 .272 .334 .371 .705
1942 40131 10912 1689 357 370 553 .272 .329 .360 .688
1943 40291 10698 1656 327 290 637 .266 .324 .344 .669
1944 41101 10656 1725 316 242 822 .259 .326 .334 .660
1945 40811 11350 1948 326 271 819 .278 .349 .362 .710
1946 40549 10282 1645 318 402 723 .254 .321 .340 .660
1946 41805 11428 2051 383 689 611 .273 .341 .390 .732
1948 41127 11374 1996 257 822 526 .277 .347 .398 .744
1949 41002 11027 1881 237 838 542 .269 .343 .388 .731
1950 40945 10948 1808 253 876 480 .267 .343 .388 .731
1951 41182 10914 1788 284 913 378 .265 .341 .389 .729
1952 40763 10318 1648 289 635 481 .253 .322 .354 .676
1953 40848 10757 1752 253 812 344 .263 .332 .378 .710
1954 40354 10516 1718 232 722 517 .261 .333 .368 .702
1955 40259 10589 1696 204 776 421 .263 .326 .373 .699
1956 40911 11181 1766 312 939 456 .273 .340 .401 .740
1957 40439 10656 1686 259 833 375 .264 .331 .380 .711

Yearly PCL park factors (adjusted)

1935
AVG 2B 3B HR

AVG 2B 3B HR
Civic Field (SEA) .989 .987 1.159 1.701
Moreing Park (SAC) .984 .985 1.099 .755
Oaks Park (OAK) .947 .938 1.173 .432
Seals Stad. (SF/MSN) 1.029 .963 1.302 .309
Vaughn St. Park (POR) 1.000 1.058 .603 1.096
Wrigley Fld. (HWD/LA) 1.009 1.051 .679 1.699

1936-1937
AVG 2B 3B HR

AVG 2B 3B HR
Civic Field (SEA) .992 1.009 1.071 1.974
Lane Field (SD) .993 .895 1.240 .730
Moreing Park (SAC) .987 1.008 1.016 .872
Oaks Park (OAK) .950 .959 1.084 .498
Seals Stad. (SF/MSN) 1.032 .985 1.203 .356
Vaughn St. Park (POR) 1.003 1.082 .557 1.265
Wrigley Fld. (HWD/LA) 1.012 1.075 .628 1.961

1938
AVG 2B 3B HR

AVG 2B 3B HR
Lane Field (SD) .996 .891 1.355 .695
Moreing Park (SAC) .990 1.004 1.110 .830
Oaks Park (OAK) .953 .955 1.184 .474
Seals Stadium (SF) 1.035 .981 1.315 .339
Sicks Stadium (SEA) .991 .949 1.055 .722
Vaughn St. Park (POR) 1.006 1.078 .609 1.204
Wrigley Fld. (HWD/LA) 1.016 1.071 .686 1.867

1939-1942
AVG 2B 3B HR

AVG 2B 3B HR
Gilmore Field (HWD) 1.010 1.032 1.182 1.239
Lane Field (SD) .997 .896 1.263 .767
Moreing Park (SAC) .991 1.010 1.035 .915
Oaks Park (OAK) .954 .961 1.104 .523
Seals Stadium (SF) 1.036 .987 1.226 .374
Sicks Stadium (SEA) .992 .954 .983 .796
Vaughn St. Park (POR) 1.007 1.084 .568 1.328
Wrigley Field (LA) 1.017 1.077 .639 2.059

1943-1944
AVG 2B 3B HR

AVG 2B 3B HR
Gilmore Field (HWD) 1.012 1.027 1.217 1.184
Lane Field (SD) .999 .892 1.300 .733
Moreing Park (SAC) .993 1.005 1.065 .875
Oaks Park (OAK) .956 .956 1.136 .500
Seals Stadium (SF) 1.018 1.015 1.028 .709
Sicks Stadium (SEA) .994 .950 1.012 .761
Vaughn St. Park (POR) 1.009 1.079 .585 1.270
Wrigley Field (LA) 1.019 1.072 .658 1.968

1945
AVG 2B 3B HR

AVG 2B 3B HR
Gilmore Field (HWD) 1.011 1.020 1.256 1.100
Lane Field (SD) 1.004 .947 1.085 1.246
Moreing Park (SAC) .992 .998 1.099 .813
Oaks Park (OAK) .955 .950 1.173 .464
Seals Stadium (SF) 1.017 1.008 1.061 .658
Sicks Stadium (SEA) .993 .943 1.044 .707
Vaughn St. Park (POR) 1.008 1.072 .603 1.179
Wrigley Field (LA) 1.018 1.065 .679 1.828

1946-1953
AVG 2B 3B HR

AVG 2B 3B HR
Gilmore Field (HWD) 1.004 1.002 1.307 .993
Lane Field (SD) .997 .930 1.129 1.125
Moreing Park (SAC) .985 .980 1.144 .733
Oaks Park (OAK) 1.009 1.069 .896 1.206
Seals Stadium (SF) 1.009 .990 1.104 .594
Sicks Stadium (SEA) .986 .927 1.087 .638
Vaughn St. Park (POR) 1.001 1.053 .628 1.064
Wrigley Field (LA) 1.010 1.046 .707 1.650

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